Earlier today we told how Subtropical Storm Nicole had formed in the Atlantic Ocean early Monday morning, November 7, with Central Florida in the cone of uncertainty. Although only a Subtropical Storm, Nicole is now expected to be a hurricane as it moves over the northern Bahamas towards the southwest Florida coast.
As we see a close eye on the storm system, Nicole is continuing her move towards Florida, and is expected to become a Category 1 hurricane on its approach to the southeast coast of Florida by Wednesday evening.
Fortunately Subtropical Storm Nicole is not currently forecast to be as damaging as Hurricane Ian was for Central Florida.
The National Hurricane Center has now issued a tropical storm watch for Orange and Osceola Counties , which include Walt Disney World, Universal Orlando Resort and SeaWorld Orlando Resort. These will likely be upgraded to warnings as Nicole gets closer.
A Tropical Storm Watch means tropical-storm-force winds are possible somewhere within the watch area within the next 48 hours.
The window for the impact of tropical-storm-force winds is currently from Wednesday evening to Thursday afternoon and the peak wind forecast calls for wind speeds from 40-50mph with gusts to 65mph.
Peak rainfall amounts are expected to be 3-6 inches.
Late Monday morning, Nicole was 495 miles east of the northwestern Bahamas, heading north-northwest at 9 mph with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph.
Nicole is expected to take a turn toward the northwest with a decrease in forward speed later Monday. A west or west-southwest motion is forecast Tuesday through early Thursday.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days and Nicole could be a hurricane by Wednesday night while it is moving near the northwestern Bahamas. Winds of 40 mph or greater extend outward up to 275 miles to the east of the center. On its current forecast track, the center of Nicole will approach the northwestern Bahamas on Tuesday, move near or over those islands on Wednesday and approach the east coast of Florida by Wednesday night. “It’s not out of the question for Nicole to reach hurricane strength, especially given how warm the waters are in the vicinity of the Bahamas,” the National Hurricane Center said in an advisory. “It should be stressed, however, that no matter Nicole’s ultimate intensity, the storm’s large size will likely cause significant wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts over a large portion of the northwestern Bahamas, Florida, and the southeastern coast of the United States during much of the upcoming week.”
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